How fast did grocery prices rise?
Each bar shows how fast grocery prices rose in a term, as an average per year, from the month before it began to its last month.
Prices rose in 12 terms.
Rise in grocery prices in each term, in % a year.
Reagan 1: from Jan 1981 to Jan 1985, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 11.5% in all, which is 2.8% a year.Reagan 1: from Jan 1981 to Jan 1985, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 11.5% in all, which is 2.8% a year.Reagan 2: from Jan 1985 to Jan 1989, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 16.5% in all, which is 3.9% a year.Bush (H.W.): from Jan 1989 to Jan 1993, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 14.8% in all, which is 3.5% a year.Clinton 1: from Jan 1993 to Jan 1997, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 13.5% in all, which is 3.2% a year.Clinton 2: from Jan 1997 to Jan 2001, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 8.5% in all, which is 2.1% a year.Bush (W.) 1: from Jan 2001 to Jan 2005, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 10.3% in all, which is 2.5% a year.Bush (W.) 2: from Jan 2005 to Jan 2009, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 16.3% in all, which is 3.9% a year.Obama 1: from Jan 2009 to Jan 2013, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 6.6% in all, which is 1.6% a year.Obama 2: from Jan 2013 to Jan 2017, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 1.3% in all, which is 0.3% a year.Trump 1: from Jan 2017 to Jan 2021, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 6.2% in all, which is 1.5% a year.Biden: from Jan 2021 to Jan 2025, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 23.3% in all, which is 5.4% a year.Trump 2: from Jan 2025 to Aug 2026, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 3.4% in all, which is 2.1% a year. Measure: CPI-U food at home (groceries), US city average, not seasonally adjusted. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), series CUUR0000SAF11. Meals out and all prices come from the same source, series CUUR0000SEFV and CUUR0000SA0.
Clinton 2: in 1999, inside this term, BLS changed how it averages the prices of similar goods, a change it lists as “Began using a geometric mean formula for most basic indexes.” BLS kept one series. So this term’s months mix the old way and the new one.
These numbers show what happened during each term. Congress, the courts, the states, the Federal Reserve and events abroad also move them.
How we counted
Each bar compares grocery prices in a term’s last month with the month before the term began. January counts for the president leaving office. So a term’s own months run from February of its first year to January four years later, and the term still running ends with the latest month published. The bar spreads that change evenly over the years, as one steady yearly rise. A short term and a full one are then on the same scale.
We use the version of the index before seasonal adjustment, because BLS doesn’t revise it after it’s published. BLS has published it monthly since 1947.
Months with no value
- October 2025 (Trump 2): no value was published, and no number here uses that month; nothing is filled in. BLS: “BLS could not collect October 2025 reference period survey data. Survey data for commodities and services were carried forward to October 2025 from September 2025. November 2025 indexes were calculated by comparing the collected November 2025 prices with the carried-forward October 2025 prices.”
Other changes BLS made to this index (BLS kept one series through each)
- 1987 (fifth comprehensive revision): “Based weights on the 1982–84 Consumer Expenditure Survey and the 1980 Census”
- 1998 (sixth comprehensive revision): “Based weights on the 1993–95 Consumer Expenditure Survey”
- 2002: “Implemented biennial weight updates”
- 2023: “Implemented annual weight updates”
Recessions
The recession months follow the dates of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the group that dates US recessions. NBER counts a recession from the month after the economy’s high point (the peak) through the month of its low point (the trough). Each month counts for the term it falls in, so a recession that runs across two terms counts in both, each with its own months. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Other measures in the same terms
All food adds meals out to groceries. World food prices are the World Bank’s index of food sold on world markets, in US dollars. They aren’t US shop prices. They’re counted by calendar year, from the year before a term began to its last year, as an average per year.
| Term | All food, % a year | World food prices, % a year |
|---|---|---|
| Reagan 1 | +3.4% | −4.6% |
| Reagan 2 | +3.9% | −0.4% |
| Bush (H.W.) | +3.4% | −1.8% |
| Clinton 1 | +2.9% | +6.0% |
| Clinton 2 | +2.2% | −8.9% |
| Bush (W.) 1 | +2.6% | +7.9% |
| Bush (W.) 2 | +3.8% | +15.2% |
| Obama 1 | +1.8% | +2.6% |
| Obama 2 | +1.2% | −7.8% |
| Trump 1 | +2.2% | +1.0% |
| Biden | +5.5% | +5.6% |
| Trump 2so far | +2.8%to Aug 2026 | −5.7%to 2025 |
Where these come from: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), series CUUR0000SAF1; World Bank, Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet), annual.
What this chart asks
Grocery prices here are the prices of food bought in stores to eat at home. Each bar shows how fast they rose or fell during one term, as an average per year, so a short term and a full one share one scale.
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How to read one bar
Reagan 1: from Jan 1981 to Jan 1985, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 11.5% in all, which is 2.8% a year.Reagan 1: from Jan 1981 to Jan 1985, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 11.5% in all, which is 2.8% a year.Reagan 2: from Jan 1985 to Jan 1989, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 16.5% in all, which is 3.9% a year.Bush (H.W.): from Jan 1989 to Jan 1993, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 14.8% in all, which is 3.5% a year.Clinton 1: from Jan 1993 to Jan 1997, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 13.5% in all, which is 3.2% a year.Clinton 2: from Jan 1997 to Jan 2001, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 8.5% in all, which is 2.1% a year.Bush (W.) 1: from Jan 2001 to Jan 2005, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 10.3% in all, which is 2.5% a year.Bush (W.) 2: from Jan 2005 to Jan 2009, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 16.3% in all, which is 3.9% a year.Obama 1: from Jan 2009 to Jan 2013, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 6.6% in all, which is 1.6% a year.Obama 2: from Jan 2013 to Jan 2017, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 1.3% in all, which is 0.3% a year.Trump 1: from Jan 2017 to Jan 2021, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 6.2% in all, which is 1.5% a year.Biden: from Jan 2021 to Jan 2025, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 23.3% in all, which is 5.4% a year.Trump 2: from Jan 2025 to Aug 2026, grocery prices (food bought in stores to eat at home) rose 3.4% in all, which is 2.1% a year. Mark another term and this example follows your mark.
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The rows under each name
Under each name: the term’s own years, the change over the whole term with its two months, the same yearly rate for meals out and for all prices, and the months of recession inside the term, by NBER’s dates (the standard US recession dates).
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Terms to read with care
Clinton 2: BLS changed how it computes the index during the term, so its months mix two methods. The note under the chart quotes BLS.
Trump 2 is still running, so its bar is striped and runs only to Aug 2026, the latest month.
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Up or down, term by term
The line under the question counts the bars. Prices rose in 12 terms.
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What the chart can’t say
These numbers show what happened during each term. Congress, the courts, the states, the Federal Reserve and events abroad also move them. How we counted, under the chart, gives the rule in full, the months with no value and each change BLS made.
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Each term’s numbers
The numbers behind the chart above, as a table for every term, in time order and measured the same way. The median is the middle value of the terms measured.
| Term | On the chart | Period counted | Start | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reagan 1 | +2.8% | Jan 1981 to Jan 1985 | Does not apply | Does not apply |
| Reagan 2 | +3.9% | Jan 1985 to Jan 1989 | Does not apply | Does not apply |
| Bush (H.W.) | +3.5% | Jan 1989 to Jan 1993 | Does not apply | Does not apply |
| Clinton 1 | +3.2% | Jan 1993 to Jan 1997 | Does not apply | Does not apply |
| Clinton 2 | +2.1% | Jan 1997 to Jan 2001 | Does not apply | Does not apply |
| Bush (W.) 1 | +2.5% | Jan 2001 to Jan 2005 | Does not apply | Does not apply |
| Bush (W.) 2 | +3.9% | Jan 2005 to Jan 2009 | Does not apply | Does not apply |
| Obama 1 | +1.6% | Jan 2009 to Jan 2013 | Does not apply | Does not apply |
| Obama 2 | +0.3% | Jan 2013 to Jan 2017 | Does not apply | Does not apply |
| Trump 1 | +1.5% | Jan 2017 to Jan 2021 | Does not apply | Does not apply |
| Biden | +5.4% | Jan 2021 to Jan 2025 | Does not apply | Does not apply |
| Trump 2 so far | +2.1% | Jan 2025 to Aug 2026 | Does not apply | Does not apply |
| Median of the terms measured | +2.7% | |||
How we counted, in short
- Grocery prices: the chart shows the average rise per year over the term’s months. Series: CPI-U food at home (groceries), US city average, not seasonally adjusted. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U).
Download this topic’s data (CSV)Every row of every series these tables read, from the first period a term counts, as each agency publishes it.