Did poverty and hunger go up or down?

Each bar is a share in a term’s last year minus the same share in the year before it began. Both counts are made once a year. Each year counts for the president in office for most of it, so the year a new president takes office counts for the new president. For the running term, the last year is the latest one published. If a count changed its method inside a term, that term gets one bar or number per version, in time order. They are never joined.

Poverty here means living in a family whose income before taxes is below the official poverty line. That line depends on family size. It rises with prices every year. The other count is the Supplemental Poverty Measure, a second count by Census. It adds tax credits and help such as food stamps to income, and takes away taxes and costs such as medical bills and the cost of getting to work. The other count changed its method more than once. A term that crosses a change shows one number per version, in time order.

Short of food means that at times during the year, a household couldn’t get enough food for everyone because it lacked money. USDA calls this food insecurity. Ate less is the share of households where people ate less at times because money was short. USDA calls this very low food security.

Census has published the official poverty rate every year since 1959, and the supplemental measure since 2009. USDA’s yearly December food survey ran from 2001 to 2024. USDA also ran the survey in the years just before, but in other months of the year. USDA says the time of year changes the share it finds. Its trend file starts in 2001.

Recessions

The recession months follow the dates of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the group that dates US recessions. NBER counts a recession from the month after the economy’s high point (the peak) through the month of its low point (the trough). Each month counts for the term it falls in, so a recession that runs across two terms counts in both, each with its own months. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Business Cycle Dating Committee.

Changes Census and USDA made to these counts

• 1987 and 1988 (Census footnote 16): “Estimates reflect the implementation of a new CPS ASEC processing system and are also revised to reflect corrections to the files after publication of the 1988 advance report”.
• 1993 (Census footnote 13): “Data collection method changed from paper and pencil to computer-assisted interviewing.”
• 2001 (ERS technical paper "Impact of Survey Season on Food Security Prevalence"): USDA: “Starting in 2001, the Food Security Supplement will be fielded annually in early December.”
• 2009: Census: “In 2009, the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) created a Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) to replace previous experimental poverty measures.”
• 2013 data (2014 survey): Census: “The 2014 CPS ASEC utilized a probability split panel design to test a redesigned set of income questions.”
• 2017 data: Census: “Implementation of an updated CPS ASEC processing system.”
• 2019 data: Census: “For each survey and methodological change, there is a break in the SPM series (2013, 2017, 2019). At each break, consecutive years are no longer comparable.”

Each series, and where it is in the agency’s tables

• Official poverty rate, people below the poverty line (old income questions, 1959-2013). Table 2, block All Races, All people, Below poverty, Percent; the 2013 row with footnote 6 (old income questions).
• Official poverty rate, people below the poverty line (redesigned income questions, previous processing system, 2013-2017). Table 2, block All Races, All people, Below poverty, Percent; the 2013 row with footnote 5 (redesigned questions) and the 2017 row with no footnote (previous processing system).
• Official poverty rate, people below the poverty line (redesigned questions, updated processing system, 2017-2025). Table 2, block All Races, All people, Below poverty, Percent; the 2013 row with footnote 5 and the 2017 row with footnote 4 (updated processing system); kept years 2017 onward.
• Supplemental Poverty Measure rate, 2009-2013 (old income questions, previous processing, original 2011 method). Table 8, block ALL RACES, All People, Below Poverty, Percent; the 2013 row with footnote 8 (old income questions).
• Supplemental Poverty Measure rate, 2013-2017 (redesigned income questions, previous processing, original 2011 method). Table 8, block ALL RACES, All People, Below Poverty, Percent; the 2013 row with footnote 7 (redesigned questions) and the 2017 row with no footnote.
• Supplemental Poverty Measure rate, 2017-2019 (updated processing, original 2011 method). Table 8, block ALL RACES, All People, Below Poverty, Percent; the 2017 row with footnote 6 (updated processing) and the 2019 row with no footnote (original 2011 method).
• Supplemental Poverty Measure rate, 2019-2025 (2021 method). Table 8, block ALL RACES, All People, Below Poverty, Percent; the 2019 row with footnote 5 (revised method) onward.
• Households that were food insecure at some time during the year (USDA ERS). trends.xlsx, sheet Trends, column B: Food insecurity (includes low and very low food security), percent of households.
• Households with very low food security at some time during the year (USDA ERS). trends.xlsx, sheet Trends, column C: Very low food security, percent of households.

The first budget year of each term

A budget year runs from October to September and is named by the year it ends in. By law, the president’s budget plan is due to Congress by the first Monday in February, for the budget year that starts in October. So a new president’s first budget year was planned by the president in office the winter before, and it was already running on the day the new term began. The first year built on the new president’s own plan starts in October of the first year in office. Congress writes the spending laws, and the president signs or vetoes them. The law listed is the one that set spending for the full budget year.

This table is here because help such as food stamps is paid from the federal budget.