What came from outside the US?
Two things from outside the US are shown for each term: how fast the world outside the US grew, and how US export prices moved against import prices. Each bar is a change a year.
The world outside the US grew in 12 terms.
US export prices rose against import prices in 8 terms, fell in 4 terms.
How fast the world outside the US grew
US export prices against import prices
Growth outside the US and US trade prices in each term, % a year.
Reagan 1, from 1980 to 1984: growth outside the US averaged +2.1% a year, +8.8% in all. Export prices moved +3.0% a year against import prices, +12.5% in all.Reagan 1, from 1980 to 1984: growth outside the US averaged +2.1% a year, +8.8% in all. Export prices moved +3.0% a year against import prices, +12.5% in all.Reagan 2, from 1984 to 1988: growth outside the US averaged +3.8% a year, +16.1% in all. Export prices moved −1.2% a year against import prices, −4.6% in all.Bush (H.W.), from 1988 to 1992: growth outside the US averaged +2.5% a year, +10.3% in all. Export prices moved −0.4% a year against import prices, −1.4% in all.Clinton 1, from 1992 to 1996: growth outside the US averaged +2.9% a year, +12.1% in all. Export prices moved +0.3% a year against import prices, +1.1% in all.Clinton 2, from 1996 to 2000: growth outside the US averaged +3.5% a year, +14.5% in all. Export prices moved +0.3% a year against import prices, +1.2% in all.Bush (W.) 1, from 2000 to 2004: growth outside the US averaged +3.2% a year, +13.6% in all. Export prices moved −0.1% a year against import prices, −0.3% in all.Bush (W.) 2, from 2004 to 2008: growth outside the US averaged +4.4% a year, +18.7% in all. Export prices moved −1.9% a year against import prices, −7.4% in all.Obama 1, from 2008 to 2012: growth outside the US averaged +2.7% a year, +11.4% in all. Export prices moved +0.9% a year against import prices, +3.5% in all.Obama 2, from 2012 to 2016: growth outside the US averaged +3.2% a year, +13.4% in all. Export prices moved +1.8% a year against import prices, +7.3% in all.Trump 1, from 2016 to 2020: growth outside the US averaged +1.6% a year, +6.7% in all. Export prices moved +0.4% a year against import prices, +1.8% in all.Biden, from 2020 to 2024: growth outside the US averaged +4.0% a year, +17.0% in all. Export prices moved +1.8% a year against import prices, +7.6% in all.Trump 2 so far, from 2024 to 2025: growth outside the US averaged +3.2% a year, +3.2% in all. Export prices moved +1.3% a year against import prices, +1.3% in all. When the price bar rises, the same US exports buy more imports. The world price rows are World Bank indexes, after inflation.
Source: Computed by us from World Bank, World Development Indicators (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD, WLD and USA); Computed by us from US Bureau of Economic Analysis NIPA Table 1.1.9 (A020RD / A021RD); World Bank, Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet), annual.
These numbers show what happened during each term. Congress, the courts, the states, the Federal Reserve and events abroad also move them.
How we counted
Each term is counted on its own calendar years. Every term begins on 20 January, and a year counts for the president who took office in it, so a term’s years are its first four and its start is the year before them. World growth is averaged over those years. Prices compare the start with the term’s last year, as a change a year. The running term ends with the latest year published.
Each series starts in its own year, as published: world growth outside the US, 1980; US export and import prices, 1929; world energy prices, 1960; world food and metal prices, 1960.
The World Bank’s world total includes the US, so we take the US out. What’s left is the rest of the world.
The US both buys and sells oil abroad. So the chart leads with export prices against import prices, which count both sides.
Recessions in each term
Recessions
The recession months follow the dates of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the group that dates US recessions. NBER counts a recession from the month after the economy’s high point (the peak) through the month of its low point (the trough). Each month counts for the term it falls in, so a recession that runs across two terms counts in both, each with its own months. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Business Cycle Dating Committee.
Other numbers from outside, and US interest rates
| Term | Crude oil pricechange a year, before inflation | US import priceschange a year | Federal funds rateaverage | Ten-year Treasury rateaverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reagan 1 | −6.2% | −0.7% | 11.8% | 12.6% |
| Reagan 2 | −15.3% | +1.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% |
| Bush (H.W.) | +6.6% | +1.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% |
| Clinton 1 | +1.8% | +0.3% | 4.6% | 6.5% |
| Clinton 2 | +8.4% | −1.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% |
| Bush (W.) 1 | +7.5% | +1.0% | 1.9% | 4.5% |
| Bush (W.) 2 | +26.7% | +5.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% |
| Obama 1 | +2.0% | +0.4% | 0.1% | 2.8% |
| Obama 2 | −20.1% | −3.4% | 0.2% | 2.2% |
| Trump 1 | −0.9% | +0.3% | 1.3% | 2.0% |
| Biden | +17.5% | +3.2% | 3.1% | 3.2% |
| Trump 2 so far | −14.4% | +0.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% |
For Trump 2, the yearly numbers run to 2025 and the monthly ones to Sep 2026.
Interest rates sit here as context only. The Federal Reserve sets the federal funds rate. The Fed says it “is an independent government agency but also one that is ultimately accountable to the public and the Congress.”
The first budget year of each term
A budget year runs from October to September and is named by the year it ends in. By law, the president’s budget plan is due to Congress by the first Monday in February, for the budget year that starts in October. So a new president’s first budget year was planned by the president in office the winter before, and it was already running on the day the new term began. The first year built on the new president’s own plan starts in October of the first year in office. Congress writes the spending laws, and the president signs or vetoes them. The law listed is the one that set spending for the full budget year.
| Term | First budget year | Budget plan for it sent by | Full-year spending law signed by | Law, and the day it was signed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reagan 1 | 1 Oct 1980 to 30 Sep 1981 | Jimmy Carter | Reagan 1 | Public Law 97-12, 5 Jun 1981 |
| Reagan 2 | 1 Oct 1984 to 30 Sep 1985 | Reagan 1 | Reagan 1 | Public Law 98-473, 12 Oct 1984 |
| Bush (H.W.) | 1 Oct 1988 to 30 Sep 1989 | Reagan 2 | Reagan 2 | Public Law 100-463, 1 Oct 1988 |
| Clinton 1 | 1 Oct 1992 to 30 Sep 1993 | Bush (H.W.) | Bush (H.W.) | Public Law 102-396, 6 Oct 1992 |
| Clinton 2 | 1 Oct 1996 to 30 Sep 1997 | Clinton 1 | Clinton 1 | Public Law 104-208, 30 Sep 1996 |
| Bush (W.) 1 | 1 Oct 2000 to 30 Sep 2001 | Clinton 2 | Clinton 2 | Public Law 106-554, 21 Dec 2000 |
| Bush (W.) 2 | 1 Oct 2004 to 30 Sep 2005 | Bush (W.) 1 | Bush (W.) 1 | Public Law 108-447, 8 Dec 2004 |
| Obama 1 | 1 Oct 2008 to 30 Sep 2009 | Bush (W.) 2 | Obama 1 | Public Law 111-8, 11 Mar 2009 |
| Obama 2 | 1 Oct 2012 to 30 Sep 2013 | Obama 1 | Obama 2 | Public Law 113-6, 26 Mar 2013 |
| Trump 1 | 1 Oct 2016 to 30 Sep 2017 | Obama 2 | Trump 1 | Public Law 115-31, 5 May 2017 |
| Biden | 1 Oct 2020 to 30 Sep 2021 | Trump 1 | Trump 1 | Public Law 116-260, 27 Dec 2020 |
| Trump 2 | 1 Oct 2024 to 30 Sep 2025 | Biden | Trump 2 | Public Law 119-4, 15 Mar 2025 |
Changes the agencies made (each kept one series)
- 1 March 2016: “As of March 1, 2016, the daily effective federal funds rate (EFFR) is a volume-weighted median of transaction-level data collected from depository institutions in the Report of Selected Money Market Rates (FR 2420). Prior to March 1, 2016, the EFFR was a volume-weighted mean of rates on brokered trades.”
- 6 December 2021: “The monotone convex method for deriving the official Treasury yield curve replaced the previous quasi-cubic hermite spline method as of December 6, 2021.”
Every series on this screen
- World GDP growth without the United States, constant 2015 US$. Computed by us from World Bank, World Development Indicators (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD, WLD and USA), series NY.GDP.MKTP.KD:WLD minus NY.GDP.MKTP.KD:USA.
- US export prices against import prices (export price index divided by import price index), annual. Computed by us from US Bureau of Economic Analysis NIPA Table 1.1.9 (A020RD / A021RD), series A020RD / A021RD.
- World Bank commodity price index, energy, real 2010 US dollars (Pink Sheet), annual. World Bank, Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet), annual, series Annual Indices (Real), column Energy.
- World Bank commodity price index, non-energy, real 2010 US dollars (Pink Sheet), annual. World Bank, Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet), annual, series Annual Indices (Real), column Non-energy.
- Crude oil, average of Brent, Dubai and WTI, nominal US dollars per barrel (World Bank Pink Sheet), annual. World Bank, Commodity Price Data (the Pink Sheet), annual, series Annual Prices (Nominal), column 'Crude oil, average'.
- Imports price index (implicit price deflator, chained 2017 = 100): United States (BEA). US Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA Table 1.1.9), series A021RD.
- Federal funds effective rate, monthly average, Federal Reserve (context only). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Statistical Release H.15 (Data Download Program), series H15/H15/RIFSPFF_N.M.
- 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, constant maturity, monthly average, Federal Reserve (context only). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Statistical Release H.15 (Data Download Program), series H15/H15/RIFLGFCY10_N.M.
- Exports price index (implicit price deflator, chained 2017 = 100): United States (BEA). US Bureau of Economic Analysis (NIPA Table 1.1.9), series A020RD.
- GDP, constant 2015 US$: World (World Bank WDI). World Bank, World Development Indicators (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), series NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.
- GDP, constant 2015 US$: United States (World Bank WDI). World Bank, World Development Indicators (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), series NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.
What this screen shows
The top bars show how fast the world outside the US grew, on average a year. The bottom bars show how US export prices moved against import prices, a year. When that bar rises, the same US exports buy more imports.
1 of 7
How to read one term
Reagan 1, from 1980 to 1984: growth outside the US averaged +2.1% a year, +8.8% in all. Export prices moved +3.0% a year against import prices, +12.5% in all.Reagan 1, from 1980 to 1984: growth outside the US averaged +2.1% a year, +8.8% in all. Export prices moved +3.0% a year against import prices, +12.5% in all.Reagan 2, from 1984 to 1988: growth outside the US averaged +3.8% a year, +16.1% in all. Export prices moved −1.2% a year against import prices, −4.6% in all.Bush (H.W.), from 1988 to 1992: growth outside the US averaged +2.5% a year, +10.3% in all. Export prices moved −0.4% a year against import prices, −1.4% in all.Clinton 1, from 1992 to 1996: growth outside the US averaged +2.9% a year, +12.1% in all. Export prices moved +0.3% a year against import prices, +1.1% in all.Clinton 2, from 1996 to 2000: growth outside the US averaged +3.5% a year, +14.5% in all. Export prices moved +0.3% a year against import prices, +1.2% in all.Bush (W.) 1, from 2000 to 2004: growth outside the US averaged +3.2% a year, +13.6% in all. Export prices moved −0.1% a year against import prices, −0.3% in all.Bush (W.) 2, from 2004 to 2008: growth outside the US averaged +4.4% a year, +18.7% in all. Export prices moved −1.9% a year against import prices, −7.4% in all.Obama 1, from 2008 to 2012: growth outside the US averaged +2.7% a year, +11.4% in all. Export prices moved +0.9% a year against import prices, +3.5% in all.Obama 2, from 2012 to 2016: growth outside the US averaged +3.2% a year, +13.4% in all. Export prices moved +1.8% a year against import prices, +7.3% in all.Trump 1, from 2016 to 2020: growth outside the US averaged +1.6% a year, +6.7% in all. Export prices moved +0.4% a year against import prices, +1.8% in all.Biden, from 2020 to 2024: growth outside the US averaged +4.0% a year, +17.0% in all. Export prices moved +1.8% a year against import prices, +7.6% in all.Trump 2 so far, from 2024 to 2025: growth outside the US averaged +3.2% a year, +3.2% in all. Export prices moved +1.3% a year against import prices, +1.3% in all. Mark another term and this example follows your mark.
2 of 7
The rows under each name
Under each name: the term’s own years, then the total over the term with the years it compares. The top panel adds the months of recession inside the term, by NBER’s dates (the standard US recession dates).
3 of 7
Two rows of world prices
Under the bottom bars, two more rows: world prices for energy and for food and metals, each a change a year, after inflation. They come from the World Bank and sit beside the trade bars as context.
4 of 7
A term to read with care
Trump 2 is still running, so its bars are striped and reach only 2025, the latest year published.
5 of 7
Up or down, term by term
The two lines under the question count the bars of each panel. The world outside the US grew in 12 terms. US export prices rose against import prices in 8 terms, fell in 4 terms.
6 of 7
What the chart can’t say
These numbers show what happened during each term. Congress, the courts, the states, the Federal Reserve and events abroad also move them. How we counted, under the chart, sets out the rule in full. It also lists other numbers from outside and US interest rates.
7 of 7
Each term’s numbers
The numbers behind the chart above, as a table for every term, in time order and measured the same way. The median is the middle value of the terms measured.
| Term | On the chart | Period counted |
|---|---|---|
| Reagan 1 | +2.1% | 1981 to 1984 |
| Reagan 2 | +3.8% | 1985 to 1988 |
| Bush (H.W.) | +2.5% | 1989 to 1992 |
| Clinton 1 | +2.9% | 1993 to 1996 |
| Clinton 2 | +3.5% | 1997 to 2000 |
| Bush (W.) 1 | +3.2% | 2001 to 2004 |
| Bush (W.) 2 | +4.4% | 2005 to 2008 |
| Obama 1 | +2.7% | 2009 to 2012 |
| Obama 2 | +3.2% | 2013 to 2016 |
| Trump 1 | +1.6% | 2017 to 2020 |
| Biden | +4.0% | 2021 to 2024 |
| Trump 2 | +3.2% | 2025 to 2025 |
| Term | On the chart | Period counted |
|---|---|---|
| Reagan 1 | +3.0% | 1980 to 1984 |
| Reagan 2 | −1.2% | 1984 to 1988 |
| Bush (H.W.) | −0.4% | 1988 to 1992 |
| Clinton 1 | +0.3% | 1992 to 1996 |
| Clinton 2 | +0.3% | 1996 to 2000 |
| Bush (W.) 1 | −0.1% | 2000 to 2004 |
| Bush (W.) 2 | −1.9% | 2004 to 2008 |
| Obama 1 | +0.9% | 2008 to 2012 |
| Obama 2 | +1.8% | 2012 to 2016 |
| Trump 1 | +0.4% | 2016 to 2020 |
| Biden | +1.8% | 2020 to 2024 |
| Trump 2 | +1.3% | 2024 to 2025 |
How we counted, in short
Each bar is a figure for the world outside the US or for US trade prices during the term, measured the same way for every term. It shows what each term faced from abroad.
Download this topic’s data (CSV)Every row of every series these tables read, from the first period a term counts, as each agency publishes it.