Did the homicide rate go up or down?

Each bar is the rate in a term’s last year minus the rate in the year before it began. A calendar year counts for the president in office for most of it, so a term’s own years are the four calendar years from the year it began. A crude rate is the count divided by the whole population. No adjustment is made for age. Rate: every death that a death certificate records as a homicide, in deaths per 100,000 residents (crude rate).

From 1979 to 1998, death certificates used an older list of causes of death, and CDC keeps those years in a database of their own. From 1999, they use the newer list. CDC says each change of list breaks the record, so no bar joins a year on one list to a year on the other. A term that crosses the change gets one bar for each side: Clinton 2.

The newer list comes in two databases. They overlap from 2018 to 2020 and give the same rates there. The newer one, which runs from 2018 to 2024, is used for Biden.

CDC WONDER keeps its newest death counts apart from the final ones, in a database it calls Provisional Mortality Statistics. In CDC’s words: “Provisional data are available for years 2025 and later”. CDC first released that database in December 2021 and adds new death records every week. These early counts can still change, so this page prints none of them, and the term still running has no bar.

The FBI count

The FBI tables used here cover 1991 to 2025, in the editions listed under Sources. The editions stay apart. No change uses a year from one edition and a year from another. The FBI row follows the rule of the bars, so it shows a change only where one edition gives both the year before a term and the term’s last year. Where an edition covers only part of a term, the cell says “not the whole term”, and the change it does give is listed here with its years. Where no edition reaches a term, the cell says “no figure”. For the term still running, the FBI row uses the latest year the FBI has published and says “so far”. The FBI doesn’t call that year’s figure preliminary.

• Bush (H.W.): −0.5, 1991–1992
• Clinton 2: −1.7, 1996–1999

Both counts are official, but they count different things. A doctor or coroner writes the cause on each death certificate. CDC adds up every death recorded as a homicide, while police forces report the murders they record to the FBI, which estimates a figure for the whole country. In every year both cover, the rate on death certificates is higher. They differ most in 2001, with 7.1 on death certificates and 5.6 in the FBI count. The FBI’s table for that year says: “The murder and nonnegligent homicides that occurred as a result of the events of September 11, 2001, are not included in this table.”

The FBI also changed the system police forces use to send it their reports. The FBI’s words on this page use short names: UCR is the FBI’s crime reporting program, and SRS and NIBRS are the old and the new system for sending reports.

Recessions

Recessions

The recession months follow the dates of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the group that dates US recessions. NBER counts a recession from the month after the economy’s high point (the peak) through the month of its low point (the trough). Each month counts for the term it falls in, so a recession that runs across two terms counts in both, each with its own months. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Business Cycle Dating Committee.

Sources

• Homicide death rate per 100,000 residents (crude), death certificates, CDC WONDER 1979-1998 (ICD-9). Source: CDC/NCHS National Vital Statistics System, served by CDC WONDER (Compressed Mortality, 1979-1998, ICD-9 database D16), series D16 request: underlying cause ICD-9 E960-E969; measure M3 crude rate, all ages, all races, both sexes, national.
• Homicide death rate per 100,000 residents (crude), death certificates, CDC WONDER 1999-2020. Source: CDC/NCHS National Vital Statistics System, served by CDC WONDER (Underlying Cause of Death, 1999-2020, bridged-race database D76), series D76 request: underlying cause ICD-10 U01, U02, X85-Y09, Y87.1; measure M3 crude rate, all ages, all races, national.
• Homicide death rate per 100,000 residents (crude), death certificates, CDC WONDER 2018-2024. Source: CDC/NCHS National Vital Statistics System, served by CDC WONDER (Underlying Cause of Death, 2018-2024, single race, database D158), series D158 request: underlying cause ICD-10 U01, U02, X85-Y09, Y87.1; measure M3 crude rate, all ages, all races, national.
• Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter rate per 100,000 inhabitants, FBI national estimate (2010 edition, 1991-1999). Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Crime in the United States, Table 1, series Crime in the United States 2010, Table 1, column Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter rate (per 100,000 inhabitants); years 1991-1999 kept.
• Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter rate per 100,000 inhabitants, FBI national estimate (2019 edition, 2000-2019). Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Program, Crime in the United States, Table 1, series Crime in the United States 2019, Table 1, column Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter rate (per 100,000 inhabitants).
• Murder and nonnegligent manslaughter rate per 100,000 inhabitants, FBI national estimate (2025 summary, 2006-2025). Source: FBI Uniform Crime Reporting Program, UCR Summary of Reported Crimes in the Nation, 2025.