Did unemployment go up or down?
Each bar is the unemployment rate in a term’s last month, minus the rate in the month before it began (January counts for the president leaving office).
Went up in 6 terms, went down in 6 terms.
Change in the unemployment rate in each term, in percentage points.
Reagan 1: from 7.5% in Jan 1981 to 7.3% in Jan 1985 is a change of −0.2.Reagan 1: from 7.5% in Jan 1981 to 7.3% in Jan 1985 is a change of −0.2.Reagan 2: from 7.3% in Jan 1985 to 5.4% in Jan 1989 is a change of −1.9.Bush (H.W.): from 5.4% in Jan 1989 to 7.3% in Jan 1993 is a change of +1.9.Clinton 1: from 7.3% in Jan 1993 to 5.3% in Jan 1997 is a change of −2.0.Clinton 2: from 5.3% in Jan 1997 to 4.2% in Jan 2001 is a change of −1.1.Bush (W.) 1: from 4.2% in Jan 2001 to 5.3% in Jan 2005 is a change of +1.1.Bush (W.) 2: from 5.3% in Jan 2005 to 7.8% in Jan 2009 is a change of +2.5.Obama 1: from 7.8% in Jan 2009 to 8.0% in Jan 2013 is a change of +0.2.Obama 2: from 8.0% in Jan 2013 to 4.7% in Jan 2017 is a change of −3.3.Trump 1: from 4.7% in Jan 2017 to 6.4% in Jan 2021 is a change of +1.7.Biden: from 6.4% in Jan 2021 to 4.0% in Jan 2025 is a change of −2.4.Trump 2: from 4.0% in Jan 2025 to 4.2% in Sep 2026 is a change of +0.2. Rate: people out of work and looking for work, as a share of the labor force. Measure: Unemployment rate (U-3, official headline), ages 16 and over, seasonally adjusted. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Population Survey), series LNS14000000.
Clinton 1: the survey changed in January 1994, inside this term. BLS says a test of the new survey “averaged 0.5 percentage point higher than the rate from the CPS ... BLS will not, however, use the parallel survey data to reissue official estimates.” So this term’s start and end come from two versions of the survey.
These numbers show what happened during each term. Congress, the courts, the states, the Federal Reserve and events abroad also move them.
How we counted
Each bar is the rate in a term’s last month minus the rate in the month before it began. January counts for the president leaving office, so a term’s own months run from February of its first year to January four years later. For the term still running, the last month is the latest month published.
BLS has published this series every month since 1948.
Months with no value
- October 2025 (Trump 2): no value was published, and no number here uses that month; nothing is filled in. BLS: “Household survey data from the Current Population Survey were not collected for the October 2025 reference period.”
Other changes BLS made to this survey (BLS kept one series through each)
- January 2003: “Revisions to the Current Population Survey Effective in January 2003, including new questions on race and Hispanic ethnicity, updated population controls, and new occupational and industry classifications”
- 2004, 2014 and 2025 (sample redesigns): “2025 redesign of the Current Population Survey sample ... 2014 redesign of the Current Population Survey sample ... 2004 redesign of the Current Population Survey sample”
- January 2025 (new controls every January): “historical data will not be revised to incorporate the new controls ... will not be directly comparable with data for December 2024 or earlier periods”
Recessions
Recessions
The recession months follow the dates of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the group that dates US recessions. NBER counts a recession from the month after the economy’s high point (the peak) through the month of its low point (the trough). Each month counts for the term it falls in, so a recession that runs across two terms counts in both, each with its own months. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), Business Cycle Dating Committee.
What this chart asks
The unemployment rate is the share of people who want a job and are looking for one but have none. Each bar shows how far that share moved during one term, up or down.
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How to read one bar
Reagan 1: from 7.5% in Jan 1981 to 7.3% in Jan 1985 is a change of −0.2.Reagan 1: from 7.5% in Jan 1981 to 7.3% in Jan 1985 is a change of −0.2.Reagan 2: from 7.3% in Jan 1985 to 5.4% in Jan 1989 is a change of −1.9.Bush (H.W.): from 5.4% in Jan 1989 to 7.3% in Jan 1993 is a change of +1.9.Clinton 1: from 7.3% in Jan 1993 to 5.3% in Jan 1997 is a change of −2.0.Clinton 2: from 5.3% in Jan 1997 to 4.2% in Jan 2001 is a change of −1.1.Bush (W.) 1: from 4.2% in Jan 2001 to 5.3% in Jan 2005 is a change of +1.1.Bush (W.) 2: from 5.3% in Jan 2005 to 7.8% in Jan 2009 is a change of +2.5.Obama 1: from 7.8% in Jan 2009 to 8.0% in Jan 2013 is a change of +0.2.Obama 2: from 8.0% in Jan 2013 to 4.7% in Jan 2017 is a change of −3.3.Trump 1: from 4.7% in Jan 2017 to 6.4% in Jan 2021 is a change of +1.7.Biden: from 6.4% in Jan 2021 to 4.0% in Jan 2025 is a change of −2.4.Trump 2: from 4.0% in Jan 2025 to 4.2% in Sep 2026 is a change of +0.2. Mark another term and this example follows your mark.
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The rows under each name
Under each name: the term’s own years, the rate at its start and end with their months, and the months of recession inside the term, by NBER’s dates (the standard US recession dates). The recession row gives dates only.
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Terms to read with care
Clinton 1: the survey changed during the term, so its start and end come from two versions of it. The note under the chart quotes BLS.
Trump 2 is still running, so its bar is striped and runs only to Sep 2026, the latest month.
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Up or down, term by term
The line under the question counts the bars. Went up in 6 terms, went down in 6 terms.
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What the chart can’t say
These numbers show what happened during each term. Congress, the courts, the states, the Federal Reserve and events abroad also move them. How we counted, under the chart, sets out the rule in full and every change BLS made to the survey.
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Each term’s numbers
The numbers behind the chart above, as a table for every term, in time order and measured the same way. The median is the middle value of the terms measured.
| Term | On the chart | Period counted | Start | End |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reagan 1 | −0.2 | Jan 1981 to Jan 1985 | 7.5% | 7.3% |
| Reagan 2 | −1.9 | Jan 1985 to Jan 1989 | 7.3% | 5.4% |
| Bush (H.W.) | +1.9 | Jan 1989 to Jan 1993 | 5.4% | 7.3% |
| Clinton 1 | −2.0 | Jan 1993 to Jan 1997 | 7.3% | 5.3% |
| Clinton 2 | −1.1 | Jan 1997 to Jan 2001 | 5.3% | 4.2% |
| Bush (W.) 1 | +1.1 | Jan 2001 to Jan 2005 | 4.2% | 5.3% |
| Bush (W.) 2 | +2.5 | Jan 2005 to Jan 2009 | 5.3% | 7.8% |
| Obama 1 | +0.2 | Jan 2009 to Jan 2013 | 7.8% | 8.0% |
| Obama 2 | −3.3 | Jan 2013 to Jan 2017 | 8.0% | 4.7% |
| Trump 1 | +1.7 | Jan 2017 to Jan 2021 | 4.7% | 6.4% |
| Biden | −2.4 | Jan 2021 to Jan 2025 | 6.4% | 4.0% |
| Trump 2 so far | +0.2 | Jan 2025 to Sep 2026 | 4.0% | 4.2% |
| Median of the terms measured | 0.0 | |||
How we counted, in short
- Unemployment rate: the chart shows the change from the value before the term to its last value. Series: Unemployment rate (U-3, official headline), ages 16 and over, seasonally adjusted. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (Current Population Survey).
Download this topic’s data (CSV)Every row of every series these tables read, from the first period a term counts, as each agency publishes it.